World-System (1970-2020) The Bubbly Economy of Argentina

 

The Economy of Argentina has been through some things: Military Coups, Recessions, Inflation, Neoliberal Austerity measures, IMF interference, Protests, etc. etc. The graphic above shows actual GDP (dark line) compared to the attractor path (dashed red line) and the 98% prediction intervals. It's not a pretty picture. For most of the late 20th Century, the economy was underperforming. After 2000, there was an Economic Bubble that eventually popped and allowed the economy to return to the attractor path (you can read the details here).

Looking at the 2003-2008 Expansionary Monetary Policy Bubble more closely, the bubble began after 2005 and was popped by the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. By 2012, the economy had returned to the attractor path (dashed red line) with growth ranging from1-2%.

The period from 1975-1990 was not good for the Argentinian economy and is sometimes describe as a period of stagflation. From 1989 to 1990, Argentina endured a hyperinflation shock. Minister of the Economy Domingo Cavallo instituted Austerity measures (trade liberalization, deregulation, and privatization) in addition to pegging the Peso to the US Dollar. Inflation has been well below the attractor path (dashed red line above) since then.

The Austerity measures (AUST1 above, see Shefner et. al.) kicked in after the hyperinflation and extended well into the 21st Century.

And, poor economic performance leads to hardship (HARD2 above, see Shefner et. al.).