June 4, 2013. In the video above (and here with transcript), CNBC stock analyst Jim Cramer is reacting to "bubble callers" (pundits saying that every overvalued stock is experiencing a bubble). It's not that Jim Cramer doesn't believe in bubbles (see the quote below), he just thinks there is a difference between overvaluation and a real bubble. My inclination would be to look at a significant departure from the attractor path (beyond the 98% bootstrap prediction interval, see an example for the SP500 here).
From the transcript:
Now, that's not to say the term is never appropriate. Looking back historically, there was a bubble in technology stocks back in 2000, and there was a bubble in housing back in 2007.
But lately, Cramer feels that the term has been thrown around far too casually.
"There's always somebody calling a bubble!" Cramer said. "Usually they're doing it to look smart." Unfortunately, those kinds of forecasts can be more harmful, than anything else.
