State Space Models

All state space models are written and estimated in the R programming language. The models are available here with instructions and R procedures for manipulating the models here here.

Saturday, July 5, 2025

World-System (1960-2010) The Long Iranian Economic Bubble

 

Plotted above is the IR1 BAU (Business-as-Usual) model Attractor Path for the Late Twentieth Century. There were three Economic Bubbles starting in the mid-1970s and not ending until the final small Economic Bubble was popped in 1990 (the period starting in 1986 is best seen as a cyclical response to the shocks of the Iranian Revolution, covered in a future post here and here). What were these Economic Bubbles and why did they pop?

Starting with 1975 in Iran, Google AI reports:



The details (see below in the Notes) involved formation of a One-party state, the Algiers Agreement with Iraq, the military buildup funded by the US, economic disruption, political repression and social changes (the Family Protection Actannulled in 1979 after the Islamic Revolution when Sharia law was re-introduced).

The period prior to the Iranian Revolution and the associated Economic Bubbles were largely, it could be argued, created by US Policy toward oil-exporting countries. 

In 1953, the CIA- and MI6-backed 1953 Iranian coup d'état overthrew Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, who had nationalized the country's oil industry to reclaim sovereignty from British control (Wikipedia).

US firms gained control of Iranian Oil production and the CIA helped fund Iran's Secret Police (SAVAK). The US, however, became mired in the Vietnam War and was unable to maintain it's global interests in the Middle East (Nixon Doctrine). At the same time, opposition to Pahlavi Iran  brought Ruhollah Khomeini to power as leader of the opposition, where he has remained today as the clerical leader of Iran.

I will decompose these evens more fully in a future post (here) when I look into more detail about how the Iranian economy worked in the Late 20th Century. What I want to emphasize now is that after major shocks and Economic Bubbles created by the US, Iran returned to the BAU attractor path (or at least cycles around it) up to the present.

You can experiment yourself with the IR BAU model (here). There are many questions remaining to be investigated before an understanding can be developed about how the Iranian Economy works. The IR BAU model is unstable in the growth component; how would stabilizing the model have affected Iran's development in the past and in the future? The Iranian system was under weak feedback control, particularly with respect to Globalization, Unemployment and Environmental issues. Would stronger feedback control help in any way or would it have made things worse? 

And, as a more general issues, how does our conventional understanding of economic models (exogenously drive technological change, instantly adapting free markets, etc.) make it difficult for us to understand Iran and make informed policy choices? So many questions...


Notes

1975 in Iran detail from Google AI:



The IR_LM Measurement Model is:


The first state variable (row of the Measurement Matrix, IR1) describes overall growth in the Iranian Economy. The second state variable, IR2, describes  Unemployment and Globalization, (IR2 = 0.9091 SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS + 0.335 KOF) and the third state variable, IR3, is an environmental-globalization feedback controller, (IR3 = 0.827 KOF - 0.3878 SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS - 0.258 EF - 0.217 EG.USE.COM.KT.OE), for unemployment, ecological footprint and energy use.

Further reading:
More Blog Postings about Iran: