State Space Models

All state space models are written and estimated in the R programming language. The models are available here with instructions and R procedures for manipulating the models here here.

Saturday, June 7, 2025

World-System (1980-2070) US Central Government Debt Bubble

 

The US Central Government (CG) Debt Bubble was created by the Great Recession. The Spike around 2020 was the result of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the botched response under the Trump Administration. The question now is whether the Debt Bubble will pop and whether we will return to the USL20 Attractor Path (dashed red line) or whether CG DEBT will continue increasing and get beyond 120% of GDP.

Here is how Google AI Analyzes the Debt Crisis:


When the Debt Bubble pops, there will be a lot of Hardship (the US Great Depression was caused by the Roaring Twenties Bubble being popped after the Wall Street Crash). In this historical instant, the Debt Bubble might well pop as the result of foolish policy actions by the Trump II Administration which does not seem to understand the Historical Polycrisis it is facing.